MARKET UPDATE #155
Free weekly stock market education service with 3 stock ideas.
Disclaimer: The content is for educational purpose only. No investment advice. Please read the full disclaimer.
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Hi ,
the current market situation reminds me about the beginning of 2020. New, potential super leaders set up with huge volume! It's very difficult not to make mistakes, because it seems that there is lot of FOMO (fear of missing out) in the markets. Always remind yourself about that: Don't let the market scare you out of your best positions! Follow your rules.
I reduced exposure in extended leaders 2 weeks ago, because the market and stocks were very extended. In hindsight that was a mistake and I will correct it next week if the market is moving higher. Emotions are the number one problem of every trader!
Here is what you will find in this newsletter:
- Questions and answers from the subscribers forum
- Comment on the current market situation: Russell 2000 ready to take off
- Stocks I am watching at the moment: $ABNB, $RBLX, U
- Trading tips: Don't let the market scare you out of your best positions.
If you have questions, please use the subscribers forum.
Thank you and good trading, Julian
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MARKET CONDITIONS
Russell 2000 ready to take off
I created three scenarios in the last newsletter: NASDAQ will sharply pullback to the EMA 21, sideways consolidation or slow downtrend. The NASDAQ decided to pull back, but did not reached the EMA 21 yet.
I think that the chances are high that we will see an outperformance of the Russell 2000 in the upcoming weeks. That would be my dream scenario! When the broad market will move higher, the chances are very high to make good money with my style.
If I look at the stocks on my watchlist I see new leadership emerging. New, aggressive growth stocks look like they are ready to move higher. The volume shows me that institutions are buying aggressively like they are afraid of missing them.
Of course you want to be prepared for the opposite scenario too! The market can change anytime and you must prepare yourself to react to a change.
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Russel 2000: The index pulled back last week and is still above the breakout line. The situation looks similar to November 2020. The next 2 weeks will show us if the market can move higher or not. |
3 LEADING STOCKS
This week I have 33 stocks on my watchlist, 5 less as last week. I try to focus on the leaders now and ignore everything else.
Would you like to learn how to find stocks like below? Look into my video course Growth Traders Toolbox.
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$ABNB: I am not the biggest fan of $ABNB, because I think the growth potential besides travel is limited. However, the travel sector is in a turnaround situation and $ABNB is one of the strongest brands in the sector.
The 1 year IPO base looks fantastic: Clear defined, accumulation, strong RS line, huge volume on the right side. A lot of institutions are owning the stock. It's an institutional favorite.
Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 5%, 299%, 67%. EPS growth in the last quarter: 299%. Positive EPS estimate for 2022.
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$RBLX: I highlighted the stock in the newsletter before and you had the time to do research about the company.
$RBLX is a global gaming platform. The story is closely linked to topics like metaverse, crypto, advertising and social media. Maybe this is the next metaverse social media platform? We will see … The market looked for getting exposure to the stock last week after earnings. The volume is outstanding!
Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 140%, 127%, 102%. EPS growth in the last 3 quarters: 144%, 300%, -80% (!). No positive EPS estimated.
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$U: This is the other metaverse stock. It's also linked to the topics 3D / AR and advertising. I highlighted the stock in the past too.
The stock is very strong after the shakeout on earnings. It is very difficult to get exposure to such a stock because it's moving so fast. Sometime you have to chase to get a position … but always keep your risk under control.
Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 41%, 48%, 43%. No positive EPS or EPS estimates.
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TRADING TIPS
Don't let the market scare you out of your best positions.
There is a quote in a book from Jesse Livermore which I like very much. He was talking to a person in a bucketshop called Old Turkey. My friend Olivier Tischendorf came up with the quote in his great membership newsletter: "If I sold that stock now, I’d lose my position; and then where would I be?"
Why is this quote so important? It sell you something about getting scared out of a position in a bull market because of fear!
If you are fearful it's very difficult to follow your rules. You are focused on the fear and start to ignore every other scenario. You look at your profits, the extended stock, the extended market and you are afraid of losing your profits in another pullback. You completely ignore the fact that the stock can move up another 20%, 50% or even 500%! Nobody know the future, nobody will prevent the stock from doing that. If there are enough buyers, the price will move up. Prediction is a very costly game in trading!
The market will never shake you out of a position. It's always your mistake and the most mistakes are based on emotions.
I got scared out of big winners in the past very often and sometimes I make the mistake today! That's normal. The question is how fast you correct your mistakes. It's no problem to put on the same position again to correct your mistake immediately.
The most emotional errors are based on position sizes that are too large. If your position size is too large, you are tempted to sell to early because of too big profits or too big losses, although the stock still has potential to the upside. Be aware of that! For me it's better to trade a 15% position and let the profits run instead of having a 30% position and micro manage it!
Another mistake is predicting the top. A stock which looks extended can easily consolidate for 1 or 2 weeks and move higher. It's much better to sell a part of the position instead the whole position. Take some profits off the table, so that you don't feel the pressure anymore and follow your rules again.
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