MARKET UPDATE #79

Free weekly stock market education service with 3 stock ideas.
Disclaimer: The content is for educational purpose only. No investment advice. Please read the full disclaimer.
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Hi ,

in recent issues I have always warned subliminally that a pullback could come. In the last week we saw a kind of fast but deep pullback in many leading stocks. I personally started to take profits on Friday 22nd before many leading names dropped 15-20% in a few days. The most leadings stocks are back to new highs so that I increased my exposure gain.

In a fast, strong and hot market, you will see many of these fast and strong pullbacks. Traders get shaken out of their position and have to buy back quickly. Is it a mistake to take profits in extended stocks? No! That's the only method to avoid big draw downs in strong bull market. The only problem is: You must get back in quickly.

Here is what you will find in this newsletter:
  • Questions and answers from the subscribers forum
  • Comment on the current market situation: Strong shake out in many leading names
  • Stocks I am watching at the moment: $REGN, $FSLY, $FVRR
  • Mindset tips: Julian's emotions during a pullback week
If you have questions, please use the subscribers forum.

Thank you and good trading,
Julian
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QUESTION AND ANSWERS

No new questions this week.

Do you have a question for me? Use the free forum. Links are below!

Visit the forum
Register for free
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MARKET CONDITIONS

Strong shake out in many leading names

Last week many leading names, especially from the software sector, corrected. The most of them resumed their uptrend within a few days and had a strong weekly close. It's not important why the pullback happened. It's only important how to react and handle such a situation.

If a stocks is extended and >50-70% above their EMA 200, the stock is getting extended for me. I don't take profits automatically, but I maybe take some partial profits and reduce the position size. In addition I watch the position more closely and wait for signs of an upcoming correction. That could be a reversal bar or multiple days of stalling price action.

Before the pullback started, you saw that type of action in a lot of leading stocks. That was a sign for me to take profits and scale back. As I always say: Your watchlist and portfolio are the best indicators!

This type of trading around a core position is an important element for me. It helps me to reduce my draw downs. If you are heavily on margin (150-200%) and you allow the stocks to correct 20%, you will lose all your profits within a few days. That's pure stress and emotions take over the control. So you have to make sure you reduce your position size a little bit when the "party is too hot to leave".

Don't be afraid of that, because if the pullback coverts into a real correction, you protected your capital.

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shop
$SHOP with pullback: The price action in the stock, the indices and on my watchlist/portfolio helped me to take (partial) profits in this stocks before the pullback started.
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docu-5

$DOCU with pullback: This is one of the strongest leader in the current market. After I saw the 3 stall bards, I started to take (partial) profits. The stock was very extended after the first rally. It was 60% above the EMA 200, which was a all-time high. After the pullback I added back to my position.

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3 LEADING STOCKS

I changed some names in my watchlist after many names pulled back. I sorted out the weak ones and added some new, strong names.

This week I have 49 stocks on my watchlist, 3 more as last week.

regn

$REGN - Biotech stocks is one of the strongest group at the moment. This stock broke out to a new all-time high. Before that happened, a large pharma company sold a large block of stocks. Maybe that was the reason for the sideways movement with low volume in the last weeks.

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fsly-2

$FSLY â€“ A few weeks ago I was not very convinced about this stocks. I saw many other IPO names which acted much stronger. But the last pullback showed the high demand for the stock. The sister stock acted poorly, so this one could be the leader.

The stock is in the cloud business and had a nice sales growth in the last quarters.

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fvrr-2

$FVRR: This was one of the strongest stocks in the last weeks. I marked in the chart that I took the most profits around the last high. The reason: Very extended stock, two strong reversal bars and I had a huge profit in that stocks.

However, the stock had a nice pullback and is maybe ready to do a second rally. Don't get me wrong: The stock is still extended and no stock is flying to the moon! So you always have to be more cautious if you buy an extended leading stock or increased you position size again.

The company behind the stock provides an online platform for freelancing. It's growing very fast, enters new markets and increase the spending per active user strongly. Maybe it's a great candidate for an acquisition.

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MINDSET TIPS

Julian's emotions during a pullback week


I you read my newsletter, watch my videos and follow me on social media, you can get the impression that I am a cool, calm and hardened trader. That's of course not true!

A week where almost all my stocks had a strong pullback is also very emotional for me. Although I took some profits, be very quick with selling and decreasing my exposure, I made mistakes too. I sold some positions too aggressively, bought back with some chasing and bought/sold some new positions break-even. The important thing is: All this more or less emotional behavior has almost no damage to my trading capital. I recognize mistakes very quickly and correct them immediately. If I buy a stock and it reversed quickly, I sell it break-even or with a very small loss.

But the up and downs in my portfolio have some emotional impact on me too. If the market is more volatile, I tend to monitor my stocks and the market more closely. I also increase my research. If I notice this behavior with me, I do two things: Increase cash and look for another activity. I sell some stocks and go out into the garden.

Over the years I made a lot of mistakes and gained experience how to handle such a situation. The most important things for me: Correct mistakes immediately, increase cash to reduce volatility and do other things. That helps a lot.

The great thing as a small trader: You can buy back any size of a position within a minute! If you get stopped out or sold too early, buy back a small position. Set a close stop loss and then watch if the stock can resume its trend.

Finally: I also recommend to decrease your social media activity if you are in an emotional situation. You are not the only one who is in a high emotional state. So many traders on Twitter are really getting active in such a situation. Ignore them all! Instead you must concentrate on yourself and your trading. If you get impacted by the chatter of others, your emotions are getting really out of control.

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