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Tech stocks are weak and they will stay weak until the market anticipate a change in the interest rates. Nobody knows when it will be, but one day the change will come.

I hear the screams of inexperienced traders every day: They held on to the leaders from 2021 and are down 50-90% in some stocks. I got so many emails last year where people tried to convince me that stock XYZ is a long-term investment and will go to the moon. I know from my experience that no stock will go to the moon and long-term investment ideas are bad ideas. Active risk management is the only method which protects from capital from 50% or higher draw downs.

In the last weeks I got a lot of questions about buying bottoms and buy into the beaten down growth names from last year. I only can say to that: Do not buy bottoms in a bear market and we have a bear market in growth stocks. A stock which is down 50% can go down 90% again! If you try to pick bottoms you have a high risk. A stock is in a downtrend because nobody wants to own that and everybody look for sellers. Wait until a new, clear uptrend starts and people want to buy!

Only cyclicals are working right now and nobody knows how long. But if you watch the single stocks, let your screeners guide you and observe the indices, you will always know what’s going on in the market.

I can easily image that tech will underperform for weeks to months while cyclicals lead and more or less go sideways or up. That happened in the past and can happen today too.

In the MARKET UPDATE Premium community I give mid-week and weekend updates and analyze the situation in videos. That‘s helpful to learn how to interpret the current market situation.

🚨 You can learn a lot about identifying the right market situation and all the market indicators I use in my GROWH TRADERS TOOLBOX course.

This week I have 35 stocks on my watchlist, 8 (!) more as last week. Even though tech stocks are in a bad shape, there are some other interesting sector setting up! I added over 25 names to the watchlist, but reduced the number to the high quality ones.

🚨 Get access to the full watchlist & an in-depth 1h analysis video of all stock every week. Join MARKET UPDATE Premium now.

Technical traders are looking for patterns in stock charts: Cup and handle, flat base, VCP … Sometimes those patterns are not available. That’s a signal from the market you should take serious. The reason for the missing patterns is not that trading strategies stopped working but that the institutional buying and selling changed.

All chart patterns develop because market participants buy and sell. They do not develop because people look for them! If institutions change their buying activity, e.g. buy less or only on pullbacks, you will not find the patterns you look for. You will find different patterns instead and sometimes you will not find tradable patterns at all, because of high uncertainty in the market.

You should only risk your precious capital if you exactly find the patterns you look for! That means that the charts and stocks you observe will show you when it’s time to buy them and when it’s time to stay out of the markets.

If you see that a lot of cup and handles, VCPs or flat bases show up on your screen, it’s time to become more aggressive. Maybe increase you position size and give the stocks more room. That’s the time to make money! The rest of the time you should be defensive and save your capital.