MARKET UPDATE #162

Free weekly stock market education service with 3 stock ideas.
Disclaimer: The content is for educational purpose only. No investment advice. Please read the full disclaimer.
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Hi ,

the market environment stays challenging. Of course there are some cyclical and conservative sectors which are working, but don't jump from style to style or sector to sector. Changing stocks or trading styles regularly is a losing game! I personally rather have a lot of cash instead of owning stocks where I have no conviction in.

Is it a problem to be mostly in cash for weeks or months? Only if you have the wrong expectations. If your expectations are not fulfilled, you feel pressure to do something and that leads to mistakes. So remove the expectation and the pressure will release.

Here is what you will find in this newsletter:
  • Questions and answers from the subscribers forum
  • Comment on the current market situation: Large caps and value / cyclical lead again
  • Stocks I am watching at the moment: $ZIM, $TSLA, $TENB
  • Trading tips: The urge to make money will kill your performance
If you have questions, please use the subscribers forum.

Thank you and good trading,
Julian

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QUESTION AND ANSWERS

2 new question or answer this week. You have to register for the forum! If you have an account, you have to login.

1) Do you buy first stage bases?
2) Interactive Brokers German Tax

Do you have a question for me? Use the free forum. Links are below!

Visit the forum
Register for free
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MARKET CONDITIONS

Large caps and value / cyclical lead again

Most growth and momentum stocks are in a down trend. Risk-off is the theme in the market and that means: Conservative stocks and large cap leads. Old, established companies with stable EPS / sales are preferred. Riskier, younger companies are on the sell list of the institutions. A bad market for me and a bad market to make big money.

Waiting patiently until the right stocks are back in favor is a key skill of a position trader. I don't trade anything and I don't switch styles. If I would do that, I would be 100% invested in the wrong names when the really outperforming names are coming back!

Observe the growth stocks and growth oriented indices and be conservative with your trading until they come back.

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S&P 500 and value lead: The broad market ($IWM Russell 2000) and growth ($IWO Russell 2000 Growth) underperforms. S&P 500 ($SPY) and Russell 2000 Value ($IWN) outperform. That's a clear sign that money is flowing into liquid large caps and conservative stocks.

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3 LEADING STOCKS

This week I have 17 stocks on my watchlist, 4 less as last week. There is almost nothing to trade on my list at the moment.

Would you like to learn how to find stocks like below? Look into my video course Growth Traders Toolbox.

zim

$ZIM: A shipping stock which I observe for weeks and months now. It develops a VCP (volatility contraction pattern) and the stock is in a strong group.

Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 112%, 200%, 210%. EPS growth in the last 3 quarters: >999%, >999%, 794%. EPS estimated for 2021 and 2022: 643% and -44% (!).

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tsla-8

$TSLA: One of the better looking growth stocks on my watchlist. It is still underperforming, but in comparison with other growth stocks it's one of the strongest.

I am not sure if $TSLA is holding up so good because it's a must-own for a lot of institutions or if it's really under accumulation. The volume behavior is ok, but not outstanding.

Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 74%, 98%, 57%. EPS growth in the last 3 quarters: 304%, 230%, 145%. EPS estimated for 2021 and 2022: 168% and 46%.

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tenb-3

$TENB: A cyber security company with mediocre growth. They provide monitoring and tracking software for cyber attacks. They are the number one in their field and produce a very steady growth.

Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 20%, 21%, 23%. EPS growth in the last 3 quarters: 244%, 124%, -22%(!). EPS estimated for 2021 and 2022: 63% and 16%.

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TRADING TIPS

The urge to make money will kill your performance

We all have expectations and we all started trading to reach a certain goal. The goal is always to make money, but the underlying expectation and the underlying motivation is different.

Some people started to trade to make a living, some people started to manage their retirement account and other people started to have an exiting hobby! All those people will fall into a trap: More action means more outcome!

While you have a relation between work and money in your day job (not in all day jobs), you don't have such a relation in trading. In trading you make money when you place the right bet in a situation when the odds are high to make money! It's like a game with probabilities. Working hours or the number of trades have no linear relation to the outcome. The only relation which exists is trading frequency and outcome when the odds are high to win a bet.

A huge problem is that many traders increase their trading frequency in bad market environments. If they notice it or not, it's a type of revenge trading and it has a lot to do with your motivation. You try to force the outcome instead of letting it develop naturally. If you catch yourself thinking or saying "It must work! Come on! …", be cautious. It's the first sign that you try to force something which is not available.

The best way is to overthink your motivation. Often the strategy you use doesn't fit to your motivation or expectation. If you try to make a living from trading with a position trading, mid term or long term trading approach, your expectations will not be fulfilled in a year like 2021. You need a day trading or swing trading approach.

If you want to manage your retirement account, you have to accept to be out of the market for many weeks or months. If you want excitement, you get it, but lose money!

I personally tend to over-trade bad market periods, but I limit the damage to a minimum. My expectation is not to make a living from trading, I want to compound my money. I know that a great market with triple digit returns will come … but maybe it takes some time. I must accept lower returns in bad market periods.

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