MARKET UPDATE #166
Free weekly stock market education service with 3 stock ideas.
Disclaimer: The content is for educational purpose only. No investment advice. Please read the full disclaimer. |
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Hi ,
first of all I want to thank all the people who joined the 🚨MARKET UPDATE Premium community! I love the discussions and your activity inside the community. That‘s a big help for all people who want to learn trading. Remember: If you want to join, you have a 30 days money back guarantee.
The stock market is still in a very vulnerable status. Even if we will see a rally attempt, it will not change the situation. For position trading we need a clear trend and a lot of great setups. Both is missing, so we have to be patient and stay out of the market as long as necessary.
Don‘t try to predict a bottom! To many traders lost a lot of money because they thought they are able to identify the exact bottom after a correction. There is no need to do that! Wait for a clear followthrough day and the start of a new uptrend.
Here is what you will find in this newsletter:
- Questions and answers from the subscribers forum
- Comment on the current market situation: Rally yes, but no change
- Stocks I am watching at the moment: $DAC, $PXD, $ADM
- Trading tips: Accept to be out of the market from time to time.
If you have questions, please use the subscribers forum.
Thank you and good trading,
Julian
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QUESTION AND ANSWERS
1 question or answer this week. You have to register for the forum! If you have an account, you have to login.
1) Trend lines Do you have a question for me? Use the free forum. Links are below!
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MARKET CONDITIONS
Rally yes, but no change
The NASDAQ corrected almost 20%. Below 20% I would say that we are close to a bear market, but currently it‘s only a stronger correction. Growth stocks are still in a bear market.
Is it now time for a turnaround? Nobody knows. Don‘t predict a bottom or turnaround. Instead wait until a clear turnaround happened. Some people think it‘s too late then, but that‘s not true. William O‘Neil and his work showed us that the true market leaders break out in the first 5-7 weeks after a clear followthrough day! So there is enough time to identify and buy into the new market leaders after a correction.
What do I want to see to become more bullish?
1. My market indicators have to signalize a turnaround.
2. A followthrough day with higher volume.
3. Higher low and higher high in the NASDAQ.
4. The NASDAQ must trade above the EMA 21.
5. A+ stock setups on my list.
At the moment, nothing from that list is given. So we have to wait to buy new mid-term positions.
🚨 You can learn a lot about identifying the right market situation and all the market indicators I use in my GROWH TRADERS TOOLBOX course. |
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NASDAQ Composite: As long as we don't see a followthrough day or that the index moves about the EMA 21 or EMA 200, bearish scenarios are more likely. Expect another breakdown anytime! It's looks like a bearish flag. |
3 LEADING STOCKS
This week I have 22 stocks on my watchlist, 2 less as last week.
🚨 Get access to the full watchlist & an in-depth 1h analysis video of all stock every week. Join MARKET UPDATE Premium now. |
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$DAC: Shipping stocks are very strong. I highlighted the strongest of them in the community.
The shortage of shipping and port capacity and the high demand will drive the earnings of the shipping companies. Nobody knows how long that will lasts, but the stocks are clear leader in the current market.
Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 24%, 25%, 65. EPS growth in the last 3 quarters: 111%, 95%, 175. EPS estimated for 2021 and 2022: 126% and 48%.
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$PXD: Oil stocks are clear leading the current market. There are so many of them on my list and the most of them are close to a buy signal. Do not forget: The development of the oil price has a huge influence on them. So do not forget to monitor the oil price.
Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 8%, 308%, 158%. EPS growth in the last 3 quarters: 3%, 754%, >999%. EPS estimated for 2021: >999%. |
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$ADM: Agricultural stocks are strong and agricultural commodities are moving higher too. I personally don‘t like to trade a conservative stock like $ADM, but the strength is obvious.
Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 41%, 34%, 28%. EPS growth in the last 3 quarters: 56%, 9%, 4%. EPS estimated for 2021 and 2022: -3% (!), 1%.
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🚨 Get access to the full watchlist & an in-depth 1h analysis video of all stock every week. Join MARKET UPDATE Premium now. |
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TRADING TIPS
Accept to be out of the market from time to time
Jesse Livermore said once that only fools think they have to play the markets all the time. As a trader you can decide if you want to play the game or not. You should only take part in the game when the probabilities are very high that you can win. Otherwise you are not playing to win, you are playing for excitement and we all know how that ends.
It‘s a key skill of a trader to control their emotions and reflect the thoughts all the time. An experienced and successful trader know when she / he is looking for excitement and not thinking about the probabilities to win. A first sign is taking mediocre trades, thinking about profits instead of risks or trying to trade all the time.
Trade only if you have a clear edge! As a position trade which holds trades for weeks to months you need a clear market trend and to make big money you need an uptrend. Stocks can only go down 100% and that’s rate, but they can go up several hundreds percents. That’s why you make the big money usually in a bull market.
To make big money, you have to accept to be out of the market for some time and wait until your edge comes back, we have a clear trend and a new bull market or uptrend establishes. Be patient! Resist the urge to make trades against the market! |
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