MARKET UPDATE #161
Free weekly stock market education service with 3 stock ideas.
Disclaimer: The content is for educational purpose only. No investment advice. Please read the full disclaimer.
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Hi ,
we have to be very patient in the current market situation and give the market all the time it needs. Making trades in a bad market environment leads to losses and deep draw downs. Avoid taking mediocre trades and buying into wide and loose chart patterns!
The stock market is more robust as I thought. Large caps going sideways while mid and small caps corrected 15%! Remember: When we have a correction in the broader stock market, new opportunities will appear. That's why we love corrections as stock traders.
Here is what you will find in this newsletter:
- Questions and answers from the subscribers forum
- Comment on the current market situation: Situation in the market improved slightly
- Stocks I am watching at the moment: $MU, $ANET, $MRVL
- Trading tips: What do you want to change in 2022?
If you have questions, please use the subscribers forum.
Thank you and good trading, Julian
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Info: I have to increase the price in 2022! So be quick and join for the old price.
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MARKET CONDITIONS
Situation in the market improved slightly
There are moments in the stock market where I expect a clear decision: Are bulls still in control of the mid-term uptrend or not? I think we had such a situation this week.
The market gapped down sharply and recovered. There is still demand for stocks and we are at a point where I see less selling in the market (oversold conditions). That doesn't mean that it's time to buy aggressively and maybe we need another couple of weeks, but the bulls are stronger as I thought. Otherwise we would have seen another breakdown and maybe a re-test of the MA 200.
My watchlist ist sill empty, but that can change anytime. A few interesting stocks came up in my screeners and I watch them closely. If they move higher on good volume and my market indicators switch to "green", it's time to buy back into the market again.
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NASDAQ Composite: The NASDAQ retested the December low and created a double bottom pattern. We will see if the current upmove will turn into a new uptrend or not. |
3 LEADING STOCKS
This week I have 21 stocks on my watchlist, 4 more as last week. The most setups are still low quality, but they are improving.
Would you like to learn how to find stocks like below? Look into my video course Growth Traders Toolbox.
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$MU: Memory semiconductor companies are leading. $MU is one of the most liquid companies and had a good reaction to earnings. It's not the leader in the sector but I prefer a liquid name above less liquid names.
The demand for memory chips is coming from data centers and also IoT. There are several other stock which benefit from the growth of the data center and IoT sector.
Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 36%, 37%, 33%. EPS growth in the last 3 quarters: 129%, 124%, 177%. EPS estimated for 2021 and 2022: 47% and 31%.
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$ANET: This is one of the strongest stocks in the tech are at the moment. The company provides switches and other network components. I personally don't like the sector, because it is not vey innovative. But it fits into the data center growth theme and $ANET benefits from other growing sectors too.
The chart, technicals and volume are not very convincing. The stock had a failed breakout and it looks like it's held back by the bad market. I watch it closely and I am excited how it will react if the pressure in the general market eases.
It's not a high growth stock for me but more a conservative growth stock.
Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 28%, 31%, 24%. EPS growth in the last 3 quarters: 24%, 28%, 21%. EPS estimated for 2021 and 2022: 23% and 25%.
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$MRVL: Another liquid semiconductor stock. They provide many different chips, but specialized on wireless and storage solutions. I like the liquidity and the strong reaction to earnings.
It looks like it needs more time and is exhausted. We will see.
Sales growth in the last 3 quarters: 20%, 48%, 61%. EPS growth in the last 3 quarters: 61%, 62%, 72%. EPS estimated for 2021 and 2022: 68% and 42%.
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TRADING TIPS
What do you want to change in 2022?
In my opinion 2021 was a difficult year. I experienced such difficult years many times in my trading career and they all happened after an outstanding year.
In 2021 we saw a lot of volatility in stocks and in the general stock market. The market moved higher in narrow channel. That's normal! Outstanding, strong markets are the exception. So you have to deal with the volatility in the stock market.
Every year I make a deep analysis of my own trading and what I want to change in the next year. I highly recommend it to you. Here is what I do:
1. Go through almost all trades I have taken in the current year. I write down learnings (good and bad things) and think about how to improve my process in 2021.
2. Set goals for the next year. They are not output but process orientated goals (example: Improve selling into the strength through …).
All improvement have to follow the SMART principle: Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time-bound. Instead of "I want to improve my selling strategy" you should write "All trades in 2022 must fulfill this rule: Sell at least 20% into the strength if the extension above the EMA 65 reached a new 6 months high to decrease my draw downs and increase my profits when a stock pulls back."
Here are some things I will work on in 2022:
– Be out of the market more often! There are only 1-2 times per year where I can make big profits. The better I am able to recognize the right time and seize the opportunity, the more profits I will make.
– Sell into the strength more often! Reducing the position size when stocks are extended and sell into the strength help to reduce draw downs. I experimented with the price distance to the EMA 65 and the results were good. I will include the results into the GROWTH TRADERS TOOLBOX course.
– Reduce draw downs! Be more aggressive moving to cash if the markets turn around. Keep the draw downs around 10% through increasing cash and selling more into the strength / trading around a core position.
– Be more selective with stocks! Ignore everything outside of your niche and be very focused. Wait until the right stocks are in favor in the right market. Ignore slow movers, value and the most cyclical stocks to have the capital in the best growth names.
That's all! These are key improvement areas for me.
As usual ever year I will "reset my trading account". It's helpful not being influenced by the results of the previous year. If you had an exceptional year, you will be influenced by the outstanding results. If you had a bad year you are influenced by that too! I personally reset the equity curve in my spreadsheet and start tracking the year 2022 without looking at the equity curve from 2021. The goal is always to keep the equity curve above the MA 10 and MA 20 and to produce an equity curve which goes from the lower left corner to the upper right corner.
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